[Chat] [Discussion] Study of "Broken Windows" theory of crimeprevention

[Kevin Zeese]

There is a lot of critique of the theory as well.
 
KZ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#Critics_of_the_theory

Critics of the theory


Critics point to the fact that rates of major crimes also dropped in many
other U.S. cities during the 1990s, both those that had adopted "zero
tolerance" policies and those that had not.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-8> [9]

Other research has pointed out that the "zero tolerance" effect on serious
crime is difficult to disentangle from other initiatives happening at around
the same time in New York. These initiatives were 1) the police reforms
described above, 2) programs that moved over 500,000 people into jobs from
welfare at a time of economic buoyancy,[verification
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability> needed] and 3)
housing vouchers that enabled poor families to move to better
neighborhoods.[verification
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability> needed]

Alternative explanations that have been put forward include:

*	The waning of the crack epidemic.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-SLATE1-9> [10]
*	Unrelated growth in the prison population due to Rockefeller drug
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockefeller_drug_laws> laws.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-SLATE1-9> [10]
*	That the number of males aged 16-24 was dropping regardless due to
demographic changes and that abortion became legal.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-FREAK-10> [11]

David Thacher (assistant professor of public policy and urban planning at
the University of  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan>
Michigan) stated in a 2004 paper that:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-11> [12]

"...social science has not been kind to the broken windows theory. A number
of scholars reanalyzed the initial studies that appeared to support it ...
Others pressed forward with new, more sophisticated studies of the
relationship between disorder and crime. The most prominent among them
concluded that the relationship between disorder and serious crime is
modest, and even that relationship is largely an artifact of more
fundamental social forces."

Thacher goes on to state that: "These challenges to the broken windows
theory have not yet discredited order maintenance policing with policymakers
or the public."

In the best-seller More Guns, Less
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_Guns,_Less_Crime> Crime (University of
Chicago Press, 2000), economist <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist>
John  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lott,_Jr.> Lott, Jr. examined the
use of the broken windows approach as well as community and problem oriented
policing programs in cities over 10,000 in population over two decades. He
found that the impact of these policing policies were not very consistent
across different types of crime. He described the pattern as almost
"random". For the broken windows approach, Lott found that the approach was
actually associated with murder and auto theft rising and rapes and larceny
falling. Increased arrest rates, affirmative action policies for hiring
police, and right-to-carry laws were much more important in explaining the
changes in crime rates.

In the best-seller Freakonomics <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freakonomics>
, economist <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist>  Steven D. Levitt
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_D._Levitt>  and co-author Stephen J.
Dubner <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_J._Dubner>  cast doubt on the
notion that the Broken Windows theory was wholly responsible for New York's
drop in crime. He instead noticed that years before the 1990s, abortion was
legalized. Women who were least able to raise kids (the poor, addicts and
unstable) were able to get abortions, so the number of children being born
in broken families was decreasing. Most crimes committed in New York are
committed by 16-24 year old males; when this demographic decreased in number
the crime rate followed.

Refutations of their analysis appeared in The Wall Street
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wall_Street_Journal> Journal
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-WSJ1-12> [13]
and The Economist <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist> .
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-Economist1-13>
[14] The former quotes economists at the Federal Reserve
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank> Bank of Boston, who
said, "[t]here are no statistical grounds for believing that the
hypothetical youths who were aborted as fetuses would have been more likely
to commit crimes had they reached maturity than the actual youths who
developed from fetuses and carried to term."
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-WSJ1-12> [13]
Also, murder among the first post-Roe v. Wade
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade>  cohort was, in some states, 3.1
times higher than the last group born before legalized abortion.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-SAILER1-14>
[15] These data show crime increasing after the advent of legalized
abortion, thus contradicting Levitt's and Dubner's conclusions. Furthermore,
increased rates of incarceration accounts for some of the decline in crime
rates discussed by Levitt and Dubner; the vicissitudes of the crack cocaine
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crack_cocaine>  business also account for part
of the rise and fall of crime rates during the period under
discussion.[citation
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed> needed]

In the Winter 2006 edition of the University of
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicago> Chicago Law Review,
Bernard Harcourt <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Harcourt>  and Jens
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jens_Ludwig> Ludwig looked at the later
Department
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Housing_and_Urban_Development>
of Housing and Urban Development program that re-housed inner-city project
tenants in New York into more orderly neighborhoods.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows#cite_note-15> [16] The
Broken Windows theory would suggest that these tenants would commit less
crime once moved, due to the more stable conditions on the streets. Harcourt
and Ludwig found instead that the tenants continued to commit crime at the
same rate.

In a further study in 2007 called "Reefer Madness" in the journal
Criminology and Public Policy, Harcourt and Ludwig find further evidence
confirming that "mean reversion
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_reversion> " fully explained the changes
in crime rates in the different precincts in New York during the 1990s.


  _____  

From: discussion-bounces at charlesvillage.info
[mailto:discussion-bounces at charlesvillage.info] On Behalf Of Jonathan
Wetmiller
Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2009 2:50 PM
To: Charles Village Discussion List; Charles Village Chat List
Subject: Re: [Discussion] Study of "Broken Windows" theory of
crimeprevention


Interesting.  There was also an article in The Economist a few weeks ago
about a series of  experiments in the Netherlands that reached similar
conclusions:

http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12630201&CFID=480
64737&CFTOKEN=30048721

-Jon

--- On Fri, 3/20/09, Emil Volcheck <volcheck at acm.org> wrote:




From: Emil Volcheck <volcheck at acm.org>
Subject: [Discussion] Study of "Broken Windows" theory of crime prevention
To: "Charles Village Discussion List" <discussion at charlesvillage.info>,
"Charles Village Chat List" <chat at charlesvillage.info>
Date: Friday, March 20, 2009, 7:27 PM


Hello, neighbors,

I recommend this story in the online edition of the Boston Globe
which reports on a study in Lowell, MA that tested the "broken
windows" theory of crime prevention using a controlled experiment:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/02/08/breakthro
ugh_on_broken_windows/
.

--Emil

-- 
Emil Volcheck
volcheck at acm.org
http://EmilVolcheck.com/

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